Back in 2018, a mere eight words to energize the party's annual gathering and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase met with rapturous applause as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. All he had said was: "We are not excluding remain as an option". Context, however, is key.
During that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.
The Evolution in Position & Settled Debates
In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.
Pressure Building on the EU
Yet, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if EU relations may not be the central crisis in UK politics, the cap that has been kept tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen again.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.
Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has resulted in a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.
Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals
Rachel Reeves is among those attempting to bypass entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people by which youths can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.
The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.
Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways to work around them. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.
Starmer's Deep-Seated Doubts
Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again by warning a return to a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- First, he believes any customs union agreement has been made much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of policy areas, including the environment.
- Second, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that European nations have little interest in cutting special deals to the UK than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.
An Alarming Document & Strategic Calculations
This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper claims Europe faces cultural extinction due to immigration. It contains a single mention to Britain, found on a suggestion that the US government may interfere in our politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.
However, instead of concluding that this renders the US an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Succession Chatter & The Ghost from the Past
This situation returns us to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt to become leader but simply an attempt to preserve the possibility of remain in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.
But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is part of a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.
Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Clear Risk & A Wise Memory
The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.
It would be wise of him to recall the impact that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on EU relations that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.
